Geology And Resources Of Some Oil Shales

In my first job as a geologist, I worked with John Dyni doing field and laboratory work studying the oil shale in Colorado and Utah for the USGS. I'm not sure if anyone knows when, and to what degree these oil shale deposits will be economically feasible to develop. There are many questions that must be addressed, such as environmental damage, water usage, etc. The following article is a good summary about oil shales of the world.

Peter

source

Geology and Resources of Some World Oil-Shale Deposits
Reprint of: USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2005-5294

By John R. Dyni
Introduction

Oil shale is commonly defined as a fine-grained sedimentary rock containing organic matter that yields substantial amounts of oil and combustible gas upon destructive distillation. Most of the organic matter is insoluble in ordinary organic solvents; therefore, it must be decomposed by heating to release such materials. Underlying most definitions of oil shale is its potential for the economic recovery of energy, including shale oil and combustible gas, as well as a number of byproducts. A deposit of oil shale having economic potential is generally one that is at or near enough to the surface to be developed by open-pit or conventional underground mining or by in-situ methods.

Oil shales range widely in organic content and oil yield. Commercial grades of oil shale, as determined by their yield of shale oil, ranges from about 100 to 200 liters per metric ton (l/t) of rock. The U.S. Geological Survey has used a lower limit of about 40 l/t for classification of Federal oil-shale lands. Others have suggested a limit as low as 25 l/t.Deposits of oil shale are in many parts of the world. These deposits, which range from Cambrian to Tertiary age, may occur as minor accumulations of little or no economic value or giant deposits that occupy thousands of square kilometers and reach thicknesses of 700 m or more.

Oil shales were deposited in a variety of depositional environments, including fresh-water to highly saline lakes, epicontinental marine basins and subtidal shelves, and in limnic and coastal swamps, commonly in association with deposits of coal.In terms of mineral and elemental content, oil shale differs from coal in several distinct ways. Oil shales typically contain much larger amounts of inert mineral matter (60–90 percent) than coals, which have been defined as containing less than 40 percent mineral matter.

The organic matter of oil shale, which is the source of liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons, typically has a higher hydrogen and lower oxygen content than that of lignite and bituminous coal.In general, the precursors of the organic matter in oil shale and coal also differ. Much of the organic matter in oil shale is of algal origin, but may also include remains of vascular land plants that more commonly compose much of the organic matter in coal. The origin of some of the organic matter in oil shale is obscure because of the lack of recognizable biologic structures that would help identify the precursor organisms. Such materials may be of bacterial origin or the product of bacterial degradation of algae or other organic matter.

The mineral component of some oil shales is composed of carbonates including calcite, dolomite, and siderite, with lesser amounts of aluminosilicates. For other oil shales, the reverse is true—silicates including quartz, feldspar, and clay minerals are dominant and carbonates are a minor component. Many oil-shale deposits contain small, but ubiquitous, amounts of sulfides including pyrite and marcasite, indicating that the sediments probably accumulated in dysaerobic to anoxic waters that prevented the destruction of the organic matter by burrowing organisms and oxidation.

Although shale oil in today’s (2004) world market is not competitive with petroleum, natural gas, or coal, it is used in several countries that possess easily exploitable deposits of oil shale but lack other fossil fuel resources. Some oil-shale deposits contain minerals and metals that add byproduct value such as alum [KAl(SO4)2•12H2O], nahcolite (NaHCO3), dawsonite [NaAl(OH)2CO3], sulfur, ammonium sulfate, vanadium, zinc, copper, and uranium.The gross heating value of oil shales on a dry-weight basis ranges from about 500 to 4,000 kilocalories per kilogram (kcal/kg) of rock. The high-grade kukersite oil shale of Estonia, which fuels several electric power plants, has a heating value of about 2,000 to 2,200 kcal/kg. By comparison, the heating value of lignitic coal ranges from 3,500 to 4,600 kcal/kg on a dry, mineral-free basis (American Society for Testing Materials, 1966).

Tectonic events and volcanism have altered some deposits. Structural deformation may impair the mining of an oil-shale deposit, whereas igneous intrusions may have thermally degraded the organic matter. Thermal alteration of this type may be restricted to a small part of the deposit, or it may be widespread making most of the deposit unfit for recovery of shale oil.

The purpose of this report is to (1) discuss the geology and summarize the resources of selected deposits of oil shale in varied geologic settings from different parts of the world and (2) present new information on selected deposits developed since 1990 (Russell, 1990).

Recoverable Resources

The commercial development of an oil-shale deposit depends upon many factors. The geologic setting and the physical and chemical characteristics of the resource are of primary importance. Roads, railroads, power lines, water, and available labor are among the factors to be considered in determining the viability of an oil-shale operation. Oil-shale lands that could be mined may be preempted by present land usage such as population centers, parks, and wildlife refuges.

Development of new in-situ mining and processing technologies may allow an oil-shale operation in previously restricted areas without causing damage to the surface or posing problems of air and water pollution.The availability and price of petroleum ultimately effect the viability of a large-scale oil-shale industry. Today, few, if any deposits can be economically mined and processed for shale oil in competition with petroleum. Nevertheless, some countries with oil-shale resources, but lack petroleum reserves, find it expedient to operate an oil-shale industry. As supplies of petroleum diminish in future years and costs for petroleum increase, greater use of oil shale for the production of electric power, transportation fuels, petrochemicals, and other industrial products seems likely.

Determining Grade of Oil Shale

The grade of oil shale has been determined by many different methods with the results expressed in a variety of units. The heating value of the oil shale may be determined using a calorimeter. Values obtained by this method are reported in English or metric units, such as British thermal units (Btu) per pound of oil shale, calories per gram (cal/gm) of rock, kilocalories per kilogram (kcal/kg) of rock, megajoules per kilogram (MJ/kg) of rock, and other units. The heating value is useful for determining the quality of an oil shale that is burned directly in a power plant to produce electricity. Although the heating value of a given oil shale is a useful and fundamental property of the rock, it does not provide information on the amounts of shale oil or combustible gas that would be yielded by retorting (destructive distillation).

The grade of oil shale can be determined by measuring the yield of oil of a shale sample in a laboratory retort. This is perhaps the most common type of analysis that is currently used to evaluate an oil-shale resource. The method commonly used in the United States is called the “modified Fischer assay,” first developed in Germany, then adapted by the U.S. Bureau of Mines for analyzing oil shale of the Green River Formation in the western United States (Stanfield and Frost, 1949). The technique was subsequently standardized as the American Society for Testing and Materials Method D-3904-80 (1984). Some laboratories have further modified the Fischer assay method to better evaluate different types of oil shale and different methods of oil-shale processing.The standardized Fischer assay method consists of heating a 100-gram sample crushed to –8 mesh (2.38-mm mesh) screen in a small aluminum retort to 500ºC at a rate of 12ºC per minute and held at that temperature for 40 minutes. The distilled vapors of oil, gas, and water are passed through a condenser cooled with ice water into a graduated centrifuge tube. The oil and water are then separated by centrifuging. The quantities reported are the weight percentages of shale oil (and its specific gravity), water, shale residue, and “gas plus loss” by difference.

The Fischer assay method does not determine the total available energy in an oil shale. When oil shale is retorted, the organic matter decomposes into oil, gas, and a residuum of carbon char remaining in the retorted shale. The amounts of individual gases—chiefly hydrocarbons, hydrogen, and carbon dioxide—are not normally determined but are reported collectively as “gas plus loss,” which is the difference of 100 weight percent minus the sum of the weights of oil, water, and spent shale.

Some oil shales may have a greater energy potential than that reported by the Fischer assay method depending on the components of the “gas plus loss.”The Fischer assay method also does not necessarily indicate the maximum amount of oil that can be produced by a given oil shale. Other retorting methods, such as the Tosco II process, are known to yield in excess of 100 percent of the yield reported by Fischer assay. In fact, special methods of retorting, such as the Hytort process, can increase oil yields of some oil shales by as much as three to four times the yield obtained by the Fischer assay method (Schora and others, 1983; Dyni and others, 1990).

At best, the Fischer assay method only approximates the energy potential of an oil-shale deposit.Newer techniques for evaluating oil-shale resources include the Rock-Eval and the “material-balance” Fischer assay methods. Both give more complete information about the grade of oil shale, but are not widely used. The modified Fischer assay, or close variations thereof, is still the major source of information for most deposits.It would be useful to develop a simple and reliable assay method for determining the energy potential of an oil shale that would include the total heat energy and the amounts of oil, water, combustible gases including hydrogen, and char in sample residue.

Origin of Organic Matter

Organic matter in oil shale includes the remains of algae, spores, pollen, plant cuticle and corky fragments of herbaceous and woody plants, and other cellular remains of lacustrine, marine, and land plants. These materials are composed chiefly of carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, and sulfur. Some organic matter retains enough biological structures so that specific types can be identified as to genus and even species. In some oil shales, the organic matter is unstructured and is best described as amorphous (bituminite). The origin of this amorphous material is not well known, but it is likely a mixture of degraded algal or bacterial remains. Small amounts of plant resins and waxes also contribute to the organic matter.

Fossil shell and bone fragments composed of phosphatic and carbonate minerals, although of organic origin, are excluded from the definition of organic matter used herein and are considered to be part of the mineral matrix of the oil shale.Most of the organic matter in oil shales is derived from various types of marine and lacustrine algae. It may also include varied admixtures of biologically higher forms of plant debris that depend on the depositional environment and geographic position. Bacterial remains can be volumetrically important in many oil shales, but they are difficult to identify.

Most of the organic matter in oil shale is insoluble in ordinary organic solvents, whereas some is bitumen that is soluble in certain organic solvents. Solid hydrocarbons, including gilsonite, wurtzilite, grahamite, ozokerite, and albertite, are present as veins or pods in some oil shales. These hydrocarbons have somewhat varied chemical and physical characteristics, and several have been mined commercially.

Thermal Maturity of Organic Matter

The thermal maturity of an oil shale refers to the degree to which the organic matter has been altered by geothermal heating. If the oil shale is heated to a high enough temperature, as may be the case if the oil shale were deeply buried, the organic matter may thermally decompose to form oil and gas. Under such circumstances, oil shales can be source rocks for petroleum and natural gas.

The Green River oil shale, for example, is presumed to be the source of the oil in the Red Wash field in northeastern Utah. On the other hand, oil-shale deposits that have economic potential for their shale-oil and gas yields are geothermally immature and have not been subjected to excessive heating. Such deposits are generally close enough to the surface to be mined by open-pit, underground mining, or by in-situ methods.

The degree of thermal maturity of an oil shale can be determined in the laboratory by several methods. One technique is to observe the changes in color of the organic matter in samples collected from varied depths in a borehole. Assuming that the organic matter is subjected to geothermal heating as a function of depth, the colors of certain types of organic matter change from lighter to darker colors. These color differences can be noted by a petrographer and measured using photometric techniques.

Geothermal maturity of organic matter in oil shale is also determined by the reflectance of vitrinite (a common constituent of coal derived from vascular land plants), if present in the rock. Vitrinite reflectance is commonly used by petroleum explorationists to determine the degree of geothermal alteration of petroleum source rocks in a sedimentary basin. A scale of vitrinite reflectances has been developed that indicates when the organic matter in a sedimentary rock has reached temperatures high enough to generate oil and gas. However, this method can pose a problem with respect to oil shale, because the reflectance of vitrinite may be depressed by the presence of lipid-rich organic matter.Vitrinite may be difficult to recognize in oil shale because it resembles other organic material of algal origin and may not have the same reflectance response as vitrinite, thereby leading to erroneous conclusions. For this reason, it may be necessary to measure vitrinite reflectance from laterally equivalent vitrinite-bearing rocks that lack the algal material.In areas where the rocks have been subjected to complex folding and faulting or have been intruded by igneous rocks, the geothermal maturity of the oil shale should be evaluated for proper determination of the economic potential of the deposit.

Classification of Oil Shale

Oil shale has received many different names over the years, such as cannel coal, boghead coal, alum shale, stellarite, albertite, kerosene shale, bituminite, gas coal, algal coal, wollongite, schistes bitumineux, torbanite, and kukersite. Some of these names are still used for certain types of oil shale. Recently, however, attempts have been made to systematically classify the many different types of oil shale on the basis of the depositional environment of the deposit, the petrographic character of the organic matter, and the precursor organisms from which the organic matter was derived.

A useful classification of oil shales was developed by A.C. Hutton (1987, 1988, 1991), who pioneered the use of blue/ultraviolet fluorescent microscopy in the study of oil-shale deposits of Australia. Adapting petrographic terms from coal terminology, Hutton developed a classification of oil shale based primarily on the origin of the organic matter. His classification has proved to be useful for correlating different kinds of organic matter in oil shale with the chemistry of the hydrocarbons derived from oil shale.

Hutton (1991) visualized oil shale as one of three broad groups of organic-rich sedimentary rocks: (1) humic coal and carbonaceous shale, (2) bitumen-impregnated rock, and (3) oil shale. He then divided oil shale into three groups based upon their environments of deposition — terrestrial, lacustrine, and marine (fig. 1).Terrestrial oil shales include those composed of lipid-rich organic matter such as resin spores, waxy cuticles, and corky tissue of roots, and stems of vascular terrestrial plants commonly found in coal-forming swamps and bogs. Lacustrine oil shales include lipid-rich organic matter derived from algae that lived in freshwater, brackish, or saline lakes. Marine oil shales are composed of lipid-rich organic matter derived from marine algae, acritarchs (unicellular organisms of questionable origin), and marine dinoflagellates.

Several quantitatively important petrographic components of the organic matter in oil shale—telalginite, lamalginite, and bituminite—are adapted from coal petrography. Telalginite is organic matter derived from large colonial or thick-walled unicellular algae, typified by genera such as Botryococcus. Lamalginite includes thin-walled colonial or unicellular algae that occurs as laminae with little or no recognizable biologic structures. Telalginite and lamalginite fluoresce brightly in shades of yellow under blue/ultraviolet light.

Bituminite, on the other hand, is largely amorphous, lacks recognizable biologic structures, and weakly fluoresces under blue light. It commonly occurs as an organic groundmass with fine-grained mineral matter. The material has not been fully characterized with respect to its composition or origin, but it is commonly an important component of marine oil shales. Coaly materials including vitrinite and inertinite are rare to abundant components of oil shale; both are derived from humic matter of land plants and have moderate and high reflectance, respectively, under the microscope.

Within his three-fold grouping of oil shales (terrestrial, lacustrine, and marine), Hutton (1991) recognized six specific oil-shale types: cannel coal, lamosite, marinite, torbanite, tasmanite, and kukersite. The most abundant and largest deposits are marinites and lamosites.Cannel coal is brown to black oil shale composed of resins, spores, waxes, and cutinaceous and corky materials derived from terrestrial vascular plants together with varied amounts of vitrinite and inertinite.

Cannel coals originate in oxygen-deficient ponds or shallow lakes in peat-forming swamps and bogs (Stach and others, 1975, p. 236–237).Lamosite is pale- and grayish-brown and dark gray to black oil shale in which the chief organic constituent is lamalginite derived from lacustrine planktonic algae. Other minor components in lamosite include vitrinite, inertinite, telalginite, and bitumen.

The Green River oil-shale deposits in western United States and a number of the Tertiary lacustrine deposits in eastern Queensland, Australia, are lamosites.Marinite is a gray to dark gray to black oil shale of marine origin in which the chief organic components are lamalginite and bituminite derived chiefly from marine phytoplankton. Marinite may also contain small amounts of bitumen, telalginite, and vitrinite. Marinites are deposited typically in epeiric seas such as on broad shallow marine shelves or inland seas where wave action is restricted and currents are minimal.

The Devonian–Mississippian oil shales of eastern United States are typical marinites. Such deposits are generally widespread covering hundreds to thousands of square kilometers, but they are relatively thin, often less than about 100 m.Torbanite, tasmanite, and kukersite are related to specific kinds of algae from which the organic matter was derived; the names are based on local geographic features. Torbanite, named after Torbane Hill in Scotland, is a black oil shale whose organic matter is composed mainly of telalginite derived largely from lipid-rich Botryococcus and related algal forms found in fresh- to brackish-water lakes. It also contains small amounts of vitrinite and inertinite. The deposits are commonly small, but can be extremely high grade. Tasmanite, named from oil-shale deposits in Tasmania, is a brown to black oil shale. The organic matter consists of telalginite derived chiefly from unicellular tasmanitid algae of marine origin and lesser amounts of vitrinite, lamalginite, and inertinite. Kukersite, which takes its name from Kukruse Manor near the town of Kohtla-Järve, Estonia, is a light brown marine oil shale. Its principal organic component is telalginite derived from the green alga, Gloeocapsomorpha prisca. The Estonian oil-shale deposit in northern Estonia along the southern coast of the Gulf of Finland and its eastern extension into Russia, the Leningrad deposit, are kukersites.

Evaluation of Oil-Shale Resources

Relatively little is known about many of the world’s deposits of oil shale and much exploratory drilling and analytical work need to be done. Early attempts to determine the total size of world oil-shale resources were based on few facts, and estimating the grade and quantity of many of these resources were speculative, at best. The situation today has not greatly improved, although much information has been published in the past decade or so, notably for deposits in Australia, Canada, Estonia, Israel, and the United States.

Evaluation of world oil-shale resources is especially difficult because of the wide variety of analytical units that are reported. The grade of a deposit is variously expressed in U.S. or Imperial gallons of shale oil per short ton (gpt) of rock, liters of shale oil per metric ton (l/t) of rock, barrels, short or metric tons of shale oil, kilocalories per kilogram (kcal/kg) of oil shale, or gigajoules (GJ) per unit weight of oil shale. To bring some uniformity into this assessment, oil-shale resources in this report are given in both metric tons of shale oil and in equivalent U.S. barrels of shale oil, and the grade of oil shale, where known, is expressed in liters of shale oil per metric ton (l/t) of rock. If the size of the resource is expressed only in volumetric units (barrels, liters, cubic meters, and so on), the density of the shale oil must be known or estimated to convert these values to metric tons. Most oil shales produce shale oil that ranges in density from about 0.85 to 0.97 by the modified Fischer assay method. In cases where the density of the shale oil is unknown, a value of 0.910 is assumed for estimating resources.

Byproducts may add considerable value to some oil-shale deposits. Uranium, vanadium, zinc, alumina, phosphate, sodium carbonate minerals, ammonium sulfate, and sulfur are some of the potential byproducts. The spent shale after retorting is used to manufacture cement, notably in Germany and China. The heat energy obtained by the combustion of the organic matter in oil shale can be used in the cement-making process. Other products that can be made from oil shale include specialty carbon fibers, adsorbent carbons, carbon black, bricks, construction and decorative blocks, soil additives, fertilizers, rock wool insulating material, and glass. Most of these uses are still small or in experimental stages, but the economic potential is large.

This appraisal of world oil-shale resources is far from complete. Many deposits are not reviewed because data or publications are unavailable. Resource data for deeply buried deposits, such as a large part of the Devonian oil-shale deposits in eastern United States, are omitted, because they are not likely to be developed in the foreseeable future.

(Wrong! The Devonian "oil shales" , like the Barnett and the Marcellus Shales are producing gas through new technology, search this blog for more information. Peter)

Thus, the total resource numbers reported herein should be regarded as conservative estimates. This review focuses on the larger deposits of oil shale that are being mined or have the best potential for development because of their size and grade.

United States of America Oil Shale
Figure 16. Areas underlain by the Green River Formation in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, United States. Figure 18. Paleogeographic map showing shoreline of the Late Devonian sea in eastern United States and major areas of surface-mineable Devonian oil shale. After Conant and Swanson (1961, their fig. 13) and Matthews and others (1980, their fig. 5).

Oil Shale - Country Menu
Introduction
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
Estonia
Israel
Jordan
Morocco
Russia
Sweden
Syria
Thailand
Turkey
United States
References Cited

Australia Oil Shale
Figure 2. Deposits of oil shale in Australia. From Crisp and others (1987, their fig. 1). Area of Toolebuc oil shale from Cook and Sherwood (1989, their fig. 2).

Brazil Oil Shale
Figure 3. Deposits of oil shale in Brazil. From Padula (1969, his fig. 1).

Canada Oil Shale
Figure 5. Oil-shale deposits in Canada. Adapted from Macauley (1981).

Estonia and Sweden Oil Shale
Figure 8. Location of the kukersite deposits in northern Estonia and Russia. Adapted from Kattai and Lokk (1998, their fig. 1) and Bauert (1994, his fig. 3).Figure 14. Map showing areas of Alum Shale in Sweden. Adapted from Andersson and others (1985, their fig. 3). Areas in blue are lakes.

Israel and Jordan Oil Shale
Figure 10. Deposits of oil shale in Israel. From Minster (1994, his fig. 1).Figure 11. Oil-shale deposits in Jordan. Adapted from Jaber and others (1997, their fig. 1) and Hamarneh (1998, his figure on p. 4).

Morocco Oil Shale
Figure 12. Oil-shale deposits in Morocco. From Bouchta (1984, his fig. 1).

China, Russia, Syria, Thailand and Turkey
Other countries with oil shales.

Who Is Really To Blame For High Gas Prices In America?

Something to think about........especially between now and the November elections......GP


The Imperative of Developing Natural Resources
Paul Weyrich
Tuesday, June 17, 2008 (source)

The year was 1967. I was on a private aircraft belonging to an oil company with my boss, the late Senator Gordon L. Allott (R-CO). We were flying to Oklahoma City, where Allott was to address the State GOP Convention. An oil company executive asked me if ever I had seen oil shale. I said I had not. Whereupon he picked up a piece, took out his cigarette lighter, and lit the piece. It burned like high grade coal. The oil company man proceeded to tell me that if oil ever reached $30 a barrel it would be profitable to develop oil shale. Even with inflation oil has exceeded that price so why aren't we developing the trillions of barrels of oil-shale reserves. There is a one word answer to that question: Congress.

I receive mail from folks who tell me they don't vote because there is no difference between the political parties. In some ways they are correct but not when it comes to energy. Representative Roy Blunt (R-MO), House Minority Whip, has presented his colleagues with data which clearly makes the case that in terms of developing oil and natural gas there is a profound difference between the parties, at least in the House of Representatives.

Blunt's figures show that for the past 14 years 91% of House Republicans voted to develop oil at ANWR while 86% of Democrats opposed drilling there. In the conversion of coal to liquid category 97% of House Republicans supported the concept while 78% of Democrats opposed it. Regarding the development of oil shale in Colorado and Utah the level of support among House Republicans was 90% while the level of opposition to the development of oil shale among Democrats was 86%.

When it comes to oil exploration for the Outer Continental Shelf 81% of Republican House Members said yes while 83% of Democrats said no. And look at this figure: 97% of House Republicans want to increase refinery capacity while 96% of Democrats said, no way. Historically, Blunt said, 91% of Republicans have favored development of oil and gas reserves while 86% of Democrats historically have been against oil and gas exploration and development.

Blunt's staff also compared the plans of each of the parties to deal with the skyrocketing price of gasoline. The Democratic plan includes seven investigations of price-gouging, four investigations of speculators, suing OPEC, $20 billion in new taxes against the oil companies. None of these would reduce the cost of gasoline. The only item in their plan which would do so is to stop the oil going to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. That would lower the cost of a gallon of gasoline by 5 cents The Republican plan would develop oil in the Continental Shelf and develop it deep in the sea. It would develop oil shale, and it would abolish earmarks to pay for the Federal gas tax holiday. Republicans and Democrats agree on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Taken together these items would reduce the cost of a gallon of gasoline by at least $1.95 and maybe a lot more depending on the productivity of each of the development projects.

What many of us wonder is this: When will the people of the United States say enough is enough and demand of their elected representatives that we develop our own resources? If we did we would not need to import one drop of oil from these ruthless dictators who would like to see us defeated or dead. I love the pristine beauty of nature, too. But we have made so many strides in new technology that we do not have to ruin the environment to explore and develop oil and gas. $4 a gallon doesn't yet seem high enough for a public revolt. What will do it? $5 a gallon? How about $8 to $11, which is what some Europeans are paying already. I hope and pray the revolt comes before it is too late.

"Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil", by David Goodstein

Here is what sounds like another excellent book about our impending energy crises. This (to me) is a far greater danger than "global warming". See also the following review from Amazon.com
Peter


Out of Gas: The End of the Age Of Oil (Paperback) by David Goodstein (Author) $13.95
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September 10, 2006
By
Dennis Littrell (SoCal) - See all my reviews For those of you who are just getting interested in the subject, David Goodstein's Out of Gas is the book you want to read first. I have read several books on the impending energy crisis, including:

Deffeyes, Kenneth S. Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak (2005)

Heinberg, Richard. The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies (2nd Ed., 2005)

Huber, Peter W. and Mark P. Mills. The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy (2005)

Leeb, Stephen and Donna Leeb. The Oil Factor: Protect Yourself--and Profit--from the Coming Energy Crisis (2005)

Simmons, Matthew R. Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy (2005)

and I can say that Professor Goodstein's modest, short and very much to the point book is as good as, if not better than, any of those five. He introduces the subject in a clear and no nonsense way and includes a lot of background information essential to understanding how energy works and why we are about to face a crisis. For readers who are expert on the physics and technology of heat engines and entropy, this book will be a little too basic in part. But even for such experts, Goodstein is essential reading because not only does he understand the science of the energy crisis, he understands the politics. Especially edifying is the material in the Postscript.

Let me reference a few ideas: OPEC (a cartel, as Goodstein explains, patterned after the Texas Railroad Commission which was the cartel that controlled oil production in the US before our supply peaked) likes to maintain prices within a range, "partly in order not to discourage demand for oil, but also to prevent investment in alternative fuels." This we know, of course. But Goodstein adds, "The implied threat is, if you invest money to develop a competitor to oil, we will flood the market with cheap oil and wipe out your investment." (pp. 126-127) This explains in part why we have been so slow to develop alternative sources. Investors are afraid. However, as Goodstein explains, if OPEC no longer has "excess pumping capacity" to flood the market, theirs becomes an empty threat.

Notice another point here: not only are OPEC countries tempted to overstate capacity so that by OPEC rules they are allowed to pump more oil, they are induced to lie about their reserves to scare potential investors away from alternative energy sources. In fact the entire oil industry itself "has a very strong incentive to deny any looming shortage of oil." In other words, to overstate their reserves. Another reason they overstate their reserves "is to keep down the price of oil properties they would like to acquire." (p. 127) Goodstein also explains why "reserves to production" (R/P) numbers have stayed about the same for many decades and why many experts say we still have forty years of oil left, same as we have had for most of the twentieth century.

Quite simply "proven" reserves are reported as "whatever fits the current needs" of the company. (p. 128) It used to be the case that under-reporting was good since it kept the price of oil from plummeting. Now the real danger is to acknowledge that a company doesn't have much oil left. This will cause their stock price to plunge, which is what happened to the Royal Dutch Shell Group "when it was forced by outside auditors to reduce its claims of proven reserves..." (p. 129)

Goodstein's take on the various alternatives to oil, including coal, shale oil, nuclear energy, renewables, etc. is very much in concert with the opinions of other experts. We will be using more coal, dirty as it is, and more nuclear energy, and natural gas. These are the three main alternatives. Not long after we run out of oil we will run out of natural gas and then coal and then even nuclear power plants will grow cold for lack of uranium, which if used to supply energy at the current rate of consumption will be depleted in five to twenty-five years. (p. 106)

Goodstein explores wind and solar and makes it clear that in the long run--if we and civilization are going to make it to the long run--we will have to develop the technology to exploit these renewable sources. This will require a huge investment. We will need the political leadership and will to make the kind of commitment that President Kennedy made in putting a man on the moon.

Goodstein believes that solving the energy problem will require the same sort of formidable and creative technology as did the space program. He adds that "Unfortunately, our present national and international leadership is reluctant even to acknowledge that there is a problem." (p. 123) It is essential that we make the commitment to develop alternatives fuels and we make that commitment NOW because (1) we will need the oil we have left to make the thousands of petrochemical products we will continue to use; (2) we need to free ourselves from dependence on the oil producing countries; and (3) there is an outside danger that the continued burning of fossils fuels will trigger a runaway greenhouse catastrophe that could lead to sterilizing the earth as has happened on Venus.

Note well this horrific downside--far worse than any "nuclear winter"--and note too we could go past the point of no return without even realizing it, and be left with no way to stop the meltdown. Bottom line: "The challenge is enormous but the stakes are even larger. If future generations are to thrive, we who have consumed Earth's legacy of cheap oil must now provide for a world without it." (p. 131)