AAPG Position Statement On Anthropogenic Global Warming

Here is the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) position statement on man-caused (anthropogenic) global warming and climate change. It is far from the fantastic alarmism promoted by the followers of James Hansen and Al Gore.
Peter


Since you raised the subject of the AAPG position statement, here it is in full: dpa.aapg.org/gac/statemen...Read this, and then the first 15 page chapter of the AAPG heavyweight introductory climate text is here:http://www.aapg.org/committees/gcc/geoPerspectivesGCC.pdfRead and digest this thoroughly and you will find out what the real professional scientists consensus is, and its not what you were told it was, by a very long chalk.


AAPG Statements on:
Geologic Carbon Storage
Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf Resources
Hydraulic Fracturing
Preservation of Geological and Geophysical Data
National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska Access
Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Access
United States National Energy Supply
Climate Change
Tax Reform
Natural Gas Supply Concerns
Reformation of the Endangered Species Act
Reformation of the Clean Water Act -- Wetlands Access
Offshore OCS Access
Research and Development Needs
Oil and Gas Workforce Needs in the 21st Century

Climate Change (PDF)
Issue:
In the last century growth in human populations has increased energy use. This has contributed additional carbon dioxide (CO2) and other gases to the atmosphere. Although the AAPG membership is divided on the degree of influence that anthropogenic CO2 has on recent and potential global temperature increases, the AAPG believes that expansion of scientific climate research into the basic controls on climate is important. This research should be undertaken by appropriate federal agencies involved in climate research and their associated grant and contract programs.

Background:
Geologists study the history of the earth and realize climate has changed often in the past due to natural causes. The Earth’s climate naturally varies constantly, in both directions, at varying rates, and on many scales. In recent decades global temperatures have risen. Yet, our planet has been far warmer and cooler than today many times in the geologic past, including the past 10,000 years.

Certain climate simulation models predict that the warming trend will continue, as reported through NAS, AGU, AAAS, and AMS. AAPG respects these scientific opinions but wants to add that the current climate warming projections could fall within well-documented natural variations in past climate and observed temperature data. These data do not necessarily support the maximum case scenarios forecast in some models. To be predictive, any model of future climate should also accurately model known climate and greenhouse gas variations recorded in the geologic history of the past 200,000 years.

Learn more:
Read AAPG's publication that further discusses worldwide climate. The first chapter of Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change is provided here as a PDF.
You may order this book edited by Lee Gerhard, William Harrison, and Bernold Hanson through the AAPG Bookstore.

Statement:
AAPG supports expanding scientific climate research into the basic controls on climate specifically including the geological, solar and astronomic aspects of climate change. Research should include understanding causes of past climate change and the potential effects of both increasing and decreasing temperatures in the future.

AAPG supports research to narrow probabilistic ranges on the effect of anthropogenic CO2 on global climate.

AAPG supports reducing emissions from fossil fuel use as a worthy goal. (However, emission reduction has an economic cost, which must be compared to the potential environmental gain).

AAPG supports the premise that economies must retain their vitality to be able to invest in alternative energy sources as fossil fuels become more expensive.

AAPG supports thepursuit of economically viable technology to sequester carbon dioxide emissions and emissions of other gases in a continuing effort to improve our environment and enhance energy recovery.

AAPG supports measures to conserve energy, which has the affect of both reducing emissions and preserving energy supplies for the future.

Who or What Caused Global Warming

A short article about global warming, from: http://dpa.aapg.org/correlator/2006/globalwarming.cfm


Who or What Caused Global Warming
We are all familiar with Al Gore’s movie An Inconvenient Truth which argues that human-caused global warming will result in near-total destruction of the planet . We can excuse him as he is only a politician not a scientist. However, the Union of Concerned Scientists state unequivocally that they can identify the “Human Fingerprint” on global warming. Even the EPA blames global warming on human activity in their web site where the opening paragraph states: According to the National Academy of Sciences, the Earth’s surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.

So, is global warming real, and if so, are humans to blame? The proof that is cited for a human cause of global warming, the “undeniable human fingerprint” comes from computer-based climate models. The problem is that for a computer-based climate model to be proof of anything, it would require that the scientist generating the model knows all of the variables that affect climate, and knows them so well, that no assumptions need to be made. Should the model fail to account for any variable or should the model contain any assumptions, then the validity of the results can, and should, be challenged.

Examine the following figures from Dr. Lee Gerhard in his web-based presentation, “Geologic Constraints on Global Climate Variability” and see if the models can stand up to the challenge. So, is Global Warming real?
Well, it is certainly warmer today than it was during the “Little Ice Age” of the late 1700s.
It is clearly warmer today than it was 20,000 years ago, but not as warm as it was 125,000 years ago.
And it is cooler today than it was during the “Roman Warm Event” of 500 BC or the “Medieval Climate Optimum” 1000 years ago.

Whether or not you believe we are warming or cooling, the debatable question according to Dr. Gerhard is “Do humans control earth’s dynamic climate system?” The principal cause of global warming according to the EPA and the Union of Concerned Scientists is increased amounts of CO2, which they argue is the result of industrialization. Yet if you examine the graph below, you will see several things. One, CO2 levels have both risen and fallen in cycles over time. These cycles existed long before the beginning of the industrial revolution, which would suggest that human activity is not responsible for CO2 cyclicity. Second, there is a several thousand year lag between the start of the temperature cycle and the CO2 cycle such that one might ask if the rise in temperatures is the cause for the rise in CO2 not the effect. It should be noted that a similar graph appears in the Woods Hole web site, however at a more compressed scale such that the lag is not apparent. They use the graph as proof of human induced global warming although they do not explain how human activity 350,000 years ago resulted in an increase in CO2. No wonder the public is confused.

So, if CO2 is not the cause of temperature changes, what is? Based on the graph below, one would conclude it is the sun.
Now there is a revolutionary concept; solar activity affects the Earth’s temperature. I wonder how Al Gore missed that one!

Finally, let me offer one last picture – proof of global warming. It illustrates nicely the effect on humans, not the affect of humans. More importantly, I hope it leaves you with a smile.
For more information on the truth and lies behind the global warming issue, I would encourage you to read “State of Fear” by Michael Crichton; an excellent thriller with abundant footnoted facts about climate change. You are also encouraged to visit Lee Gerhard’s excellent web-site. Other interesting web sites, both informative and alarmist are listed below.

Informational Sites
Kansas Energy Information Network
http://www.kansasenergy.org/climatechange.htm
Geologic Constraints on Global Climate Variability
http://www.kansasenergy.org/documents/Gerhard_Climate_Change.pdf
Competitive Enterprise Institute
http://www.cei.org/pages/co2.cfm
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html

Alarmist Sites
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/climate.html
Union of Concerned Scientists
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/Fingerprints.html
NewScientist.com
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change
Woods Hole Research Center
http://www.whrc.org/resources/online_publications/warming_earth/index.htm

Geological Perspectives of Global Climate Change

This is a good review of a publication representing a view of global warming from some of the world's foremost geologists, and certainly one the most respected organizations of geologists. For the entire book review, go here: http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO2ScienceB2C/education/book/v5_book/mathiesen.jsp

Peter


Archived Book Review
Geological Perspectives of Global Climate ChangeAAPG Studies in Geology # 47

Edited by Lee C. Gerhard, William E. Harrison and Bernold M. Hanson Published by the American Association of Petroleum Geologists in collaboration with the Kansas Geological Survey and the AAPG Division of Environmental Geosciences; contributions by the U.S. Geological Survey, March 2001

INTRODUCTION
This highly illuminating volume presents a series of peer-reviewed scientific papers, selected to provide a geological perspective of current concerns about anthropogenic effects on Earth's climate. The selection of papers is both highly relevant and objective. Every effort has been made to present facts, leaving the reader free to reach his or her own conclusions on the likelihood of a man-made climate catastrophe resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases and the advisability of basing international environmental policies on the IPCC's GCM-based estimates of climate change in the near future.

Despite the editors' meticulous avoidance of favoring one view over another, it is impossible not to conclude from the papers selected that the present warming trend is caused predominantly, if not entirely, by natural phenomena. Anthropogenic effects on temperature cannot be distinguished in the present warming, as the planet recovers from the Little Ice Age with resulting temperature changes within the expected range.

The comparison with past climate changes and the analysis of all known climate change drivers effectively deflate the politically-driven sense of urgency to act in order to avoid a man-made climate calamity. Indeed, the book's collection of insight seriously questions whether the concept of man-induced climate change reversal is feasible at all.

The politically-driven perception that action is urgently needed to stop global warming arises from the prevalent notion that Earth's climate has been stable and benign for the longest time and is only now suddenly beginning to undergo ominous change as a result of mankind's interference with nature. This concept is in conflict with the reasoned approach of scientists questioning the need and efficacy of such action. It is not widely understood that climate is never stable; it changes constantly. Politicians are upset about the possibility of a very minor sea level change, and are unaware that only 14,000 years ago the sea level was over 500 feet below what we consider 'normal'.

Since political movements aspire to interpret scientific arguments by majority rule, it may be impossible to stop a nonsensical waste of resources in a futile attempt to alter what in all likelihood is nothing more than a natural change in climate. Scientists are at a loss to explain sophisticated and complex issues to a lay public, as well as governments, who prefer simplicity to reality. This situation, note the editors of this remarkable and very timely volume, may force science to abandon its efforts to explain and instead focus on introducing the least expensive methods of CO2 emission abatement (to the delight of a hopeful CO2 sequestration industry).

This unusually lengthy review highlights some of the most essential observations and conclusions of the papers presented as they relate to the current debate on climate change. The intent has been to present a cohesive view of the purported warming phenomenon afforded by the generous amount of relevant, factual and refreshingly new information provided in this single volume.

(Continued in the original at: http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO2ScienceB2C/education/book/v5_book/mathiesen.jsp