Peter
On The Hijacking of the American Meteorological Society (AMS)
Below is the introduction to a paper being circulated by Bill Gray, Professor Emeritus, Colorado State University and AMS Fellow, Charney Award recipient, and a member of AMS for over 50-years. The full paper can be obtained from Prof. Gray: Gray@Atmos.ColoState.Edu
I am appalled at the selection of James Hansen as this year's recipient of the AMS's highest award - the Rossby Research Medal. James Hansen has not been trained as a meteorologist. His formal education has been in astronomy. His long records of faulty global climate predictions and alarmist public pronouncements have become increasingly hollow and at odds with reality. Hansen has exploited the general public's lack of knowledge of how the globe's climate system functions for his own benefit. His global warming predictions, going back to 1988 are not being verified. Why have we allowed him go on for all these years with his faulty and alarmist prognostications? And why would the AMS give him its highest award?
By presenting Hansen with its highest award, the AMS implies it agrees with his faulty global temperature projections and irresponsible alarmist rhetoric. This award, in combination with other recent AMS awards going to known CO2 warming advocates, is an insult to a large number of AMS members who do not believe that humans are causing a significant amount of the global temperature increase. These awards diminish the AMS's sterling reputation for scientific objectivity.
Hansen previously studied the run-away greenhouse warming of Venus. He appears to think that man's emittance of CO2 gases, if unchecked, will eventually cause the Earth to follow a similar fate. Hansen's arrogance and gall over the reality of his model results is breathtaking. He has recently warned President Obama that our country has only 4 years left to act on reducing CO2 gases before the globe will reach a point of irretrievable and disastrous human-caused warming. How does he know what thousands of us who have spent long careers in meteorology-climatology do not know?
Hansen's predictions of global warming made before the Senate in 1988 are turning out to be very much less than he had projected. He cannot explain why there has been no significant global warming over the last 10 years and why there has been a weak global cooling between 2001 and 2008. Hansen and his legion of environmental-political supporters (with no meteorological-climate background) have done monumental damage to an open and honest discussion of the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) question.
He and his fellow collaborators (and their media sycophantic followers) are responsible for the brainwashing of a large segment of the American public about a grossly exaggerated human-induced warming threat that does not exist. Most of the global warming we have observed is of natural origin and due to multi-decadal and multi-century changes in the globe's deep ocean circulation resulting from salinity variations (see the Appendix for scientific discussion). These changes are not associated with CO2 increases.
Hansen has little experience in practical meteorology. He apparently does not realize that the strongly chaotic nature of the atmosphere-ocean climate system does not allow for skillful initial value numerical climate prediction. Hansen's modeling efforts are badly flawed in the following ways: His upper tropospheric water vapor feedback loop is grossly wrong. He assumes that increases in atmospheric CO2 will cause large upper-tropospheric water vapor increases which are very unrealistic. Most of his model warming follows from his invalid water vapor assumptions.
His handlings of rainfall processes are, as with the other global climate modelers, quite inadequate. He lacks an understanding and treatment of the fundamental role of the deep ocean circulation (i.e. Meridional Overturning Circulation - MOC) and how the changing ocean circulation (driven by salinity variations) can bring about wind, rainfall, and surface temperature changes independent of radiation and greenhouse gas changes. He does not have these ocean processes properly incorporated in his model.
He assumes the physics of global warming is entirely a product of radiation changes and radiation feedback processes. This is a major deficiency.
Hansen's Free Ride.
It is surprising that Hansen has been able to get away with his unrealistic modeling efforts for so long. One explanation is that he has received strong support from Senator/Vice President Al Gore who for over three decades has attempted to make political capital out of increasing CO2 measurements.
Another reason is the many environmental and political groups (including the mainstream media) who are eager to use Hansen's modeling results as justification to push their own special interests that are able to fly under the global warming banner.
A third explanation is that he has not been challenged by his peer climate modeling groups who apparently have seen possibilities for research grant support and publicity gains by following Hansen's lead.
Yet another reason has been the luck of his propitious timing. His 1988 Senate testimony occurred after there had been global warming since the mid-1970s and we were experiencing a hot summer. And the global warming that occurred over the next 10 years (to 1998) gave an undeserved justification to his CO2 warming claims. Had Hansen given his Senate testimony in the 1970s or today (since we have seen weak global cooling since 2001) his alarmist rhetoric would have been taken much less seriously.
I anticipate that we are going to experience a modest naturally-driven global cooling over the next 15-20 years. This will be similar to the weak global cooling that occurred between the early-1940s and the mid-1970s. It is to be noted that CO2 amounts were also rising during this earlier cooling period which was opposite to the assumed CO2 temperature relationship.
7 comments:
Hi Pete.....Rusty!
Brilliant article! If I ever had any doubt about the scientific bankruptcy of the gas guzzler worshiping religion, your personal attacks on Dr. James Hanson has removed any doubt. If Dr. Hanson had any interest in putting his career ahead of scientific integrity, you would have thought that he would have spent the last eight years with his lips on Dubyah's rear end. With regards to the crapola that global warming ended in 1998, unless you are willing to wait 100 years for sunspots to return, I suggest that you compare 2008 with the last time the sun was so quiet. I believe that that was during a period called the Little Ice Age.
To Jim Y.
Ad Hominem attacks are the modus operandi of those who refuse to confront scientific data with science. It is hard to imagine using the words "Dr. Hansen" and "scientific integrity" in the same sentence. Algore is not a scientist, just a snake oil salesman with an agenda, and anyone who does the research discovers that it is the alarmists who are promoting religious hype vis-a-vis "Global Warming" now, oops, seamlessly morphed to "Climate Change". Hot tip: if the earth's climate suddenly stopped changing that would be real news. It is hubris to fantasize that humans have the ability to control something that we barely understand. What we really need are some really expensive regulations for controlling volcanos. Flat out outlaw them. The science is settled and the debate is over. Wonder how I could make some money off of that promotion. Hmmmm. Or hey, how about earth orbit control. Wonder if we could kick start the sun by sending it a nuke. I propose a study to explore these subjects. Funding anyone?
This weekend The American Association for the Advancement of Science and the American Association of Physics Teachers are holding combined meetings in Chicago. At the last minute they announced that "lucky us" Al Gore was coming to speak to us.
How embarassing, perhaps AAAS had already sold out for a few bucks but for AAPT I can't imagine anyone who has done physics education more damage than Al.
Interesting to note Al Gore, a failed 2000 presidential candidate would NOT carry his own homestate of Tennessee.
Presidential candidates who generally fail to win their own home states in presidental elections rightfully are denied the presidency; thank G-d.
George McGovern a liberal leftwing Democrat would do the same trick with the loss of his homestate of S. Dakota in 1972.
James Hansen is a political idelogue more so then an astute NASA scientist. He is an embarrassment to NASA with his wild explanations and hearsay on a certain junk science known as 'global warming'.
I believe the same James Hansen freely admitted sometime back that he "doctored" the figures of 'global warming' somewhat to fit his arguments in favor of his mentor Al Gore.
Back to Al Gore. Was it the same Al Gore who boasted the claim his own mother would hum him the radio and television union jingle; "Look to the Union Label" while he was an infant in a baby crib? The spot ad would make its debut during the middle 1970s on television and radio?
Al Gore was born into this world in 1946. This would have made this braggart (Al Gore) at least 27-years of age as an infant he so claimed to be?
A liar nevertheless. But a poor liar when he blurted this claim during the 2000 presidential campaign against George W. Bush.
Am I believe these two?
Yeah sure! [sarcasm]
Red Barr
My husband knows someone, who works for the weather station in New Founland. The man told him that the instruments were mal-funtioning. Data from that station is inaccurate and has been for an unknown period of time. The data was used to proove the gobal warming theory. All data prooving the gobal warming theory needs to be examined and the conclusions
reavaluated.
There’s far more evidence to suggest that pot smoking causes adult onset psychosis, as demonstrated by Al Gore’s delusional poetry, than there is proof that global warming even exists. It takes an IQ greater than one’s shoe size to pen something comparable to poetry, yet in addition to his substantial carbon footprint, Al Gore stands to net billions of US dollars for his global warming scam, upon none of which will he pay taxes.
In 1971, I first encountered the GLOBAL WARMING CULT. Terry McAuliffe was pushing the fledgling global flooding ideology out of a cleverly named unisex-clothing shop called Hang-Ups, in a converted African American Church, acquired under false pretenses and wittily christened THE ARK, on South Patrick Street, in Alexandria, Virginia. As a live music venue, THE ARK would easily eclipse New York’s already famous Fillmore East, but folded a short time later due to corrupt business practices.
Although persuasive, the global flooding argument didn't ring true. I knew that NASA, the military and government agencies did extensive climate research, and said as much. If global warming could melt the polar ice caps and thus cause global flooding by 1976, the alarm should come from the aforementioned sources. Perhaps not coincidentally, by 1976 the Earth’s fossil fuel deposits would also be depleted. It was a grim scenario. Terry McAuliffe, who probably named THE ARK himself, took me aside and explained, when it came to global warming; you couldn’t trust the government.
As we know, 1976 came and went without a global catastrophe. I still had that $45-dollar pair of striped slacks just like Hillary’s. I don’t know which was worse. I never regretted being booted from the cabal (I was hardly ever in), and never expected to run into Terry or his disciples again, especially decades later in sunny California. Yet there they were on the Central Coast, whistling the same old tune with some major new variations. They’d applied the global warming hysteria to higher education. Like global warming itself, education now became a massive fraud scheme designed to enrich the GLOBAL WARMING CULT. By 1995, The Brethren Of The Coast had grown exponentially. There would be much more to manmade global warming than mere water spotting: http://theseedsof9-11.com
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